Can we talk about risk?...
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Hey, I am very rarely here, but do drop in to read and learn. Our journey has been long. 2 years for charges, and now a caution and 2 years on SOR for my person. I have been mulling a few things as we move forwards to the next stage of our lives.
I have been thinking about risk and time. Through my research I have found information about risk of reoffending, and risk of progression from images to contact etc. But what I have never seen is any information on risk vs time.
We can sit there and look at our people knowing the trauma of the knock, their mental health and suicide risk, their remorse, their experience of the damage they caused their families is a huge reason to never go there again, and we know through research that is is the case for many. And while they now have done the work to understand why they did it, their triggers, the theory of living a good life and how important this is to managing their own risk, etc etc, can we consider the further we move away from that period in time when they were doing what they were doing, then the lower the risk?
Does risk reduce over time? One would expect so, as with most things - drugs, alcahol and any other addiction while there is always risk, but that risk does reduce over time with this issue. Is this different to other activities?
I would really be interested if anyone has any research on this, and also your views.
I have been thinking about risk and time. Through my research I have found information about risk of reoffending, and risk of progression from images to contact etc. But what I have never seen is any information on risk vs time.
We can sit there and look at our people knowing the trauma of the knock, their mental health and suicide risk, their remorse, their experience of the damage they caused their families is a huge reason to never go there again, and we know through research that is is the case for many. And while they now have done the work to understand why they did it, their triggers, the theory of living a good life and how important this is to managing their own risk, etc etc, can we consider the further we move away from that period in time when they were doing what they were doing, then the lower the risk?
Does risk reduce over time? One would expect so, as with most things - drugs, alcahol and any other addiction while there is always risk, but that risk does reduce over time with this issue. Is this different to other activities?
I would really be interested if anyone has any research on this, and also your views.
Hi,
my person has been told by probation and visor that time does impact on risk level. I think I read somewhere that it significantly reduces after 5 years. I shared recently about the risk of reoffending according to risk matrix and Oasys, I'm not sure if the risk vs time was on that research but I'll try to find it xx
my person has been told by probation and visor that time does impact on risk level. I think I read somewhere that it significantly reduces after 5 years. I shared recently about the risk of reoffending according to risk matrix and Oasys, I'm not sure if the risk vs time was on that research but I'll try to find it xx
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/600eaacfd3bf7f05c06dfc48/comparing-2-predictors-sexual-recidivism.pdf
It's at the bottom of page 14 points 4 and 5 I think xx
It's at the bottom of page 14 points 4 and 5 I think xx
Oh thank you so much. I will look into this a bit further now I have a starting point. I really apprecate your help.
I'm hoping my (ex) partners time since offence is taken into consideration.
he committed an offence back in 2020, so 4 years ago and will be at least 2 years until sentencing I'm sure.
I want to believe him when he says he never actively went looking for images- he was sent images by a woman he was seeing and blocked her, but didn't delete the images stupidly so they save on WhatsApp file.
She was arrested first and his name must have come up on her device search leading to arrest. He assures me he's never viewed IIOC in terms of searches etc. He was arrested for possession and making.
it's horrible how long this process goes on for for everyone involved, but hopefully they will see since that incident he's not looked at any IIOC or any interest in under 18s.
let's just hope he's telling me everything.
he committed an offence back in 2020, so 4 years ago and will be at least 2 years until sentencing I'm sure.
I want to believe him when he says he never actively went looking for images- he was sent images by a woman he was seeing and blocked her, but didn't delete the images stupidly so they save on WhatsApp file.
She was arrested first and his name must have come up on her device search leading to arrest. He assures me he's never viewed IIOC in terms of searches etc. He was arrested for possession and making.
it's horrible how long this process goes on for for everyone involved, but hopefully they will see since that incident he's not looked at any IIOC or any interest in under 18s.
let's just hope he's telling me everything.